Josh Allen


josh allen graph.PNG

By: Willie Lovato


The Pros:

  • Generational arm talent
  • NFL prototypical size
  • Underrated athlete
  • Ability to extend plays
  • Ability to fit ball into small windows

Arm talent - Josh Allen's arm talent is his best quality. Very few people on the planet posses the arm talent that Allen does. At the senior bowl, he clocked in at 66mph on the radar gun per NFL.com's Gil Brandt. Just to put that into perspective, that's the equivalent of an MLB prospect throwing a 110mph fastball.

Underrated athlete - Allen is sneaky athletic for a player of his size. He routinely made teams pay for letting him get outside the pocket in college.

Ability to extend plays - His athleticism and size allow Allen a tough guy to bring down. He is able to scramble outside the pocket when things break down and extend plays.

Ability to fit the ball into small windows - Elite arm talent can be a quarterbacks best friend and worse nightmare. This rings true for Allen in the sense that he believes he can fit the ball into tight windows when he shouldn't try. That being said, Allen's arm talent is like very few to walk the planet, which allows him to make throws very few other can.

 

The cons:

  • Accuracy
  • Footwork
  • Arm strength
  • Inconsistent
  • Decision making

Accuracy - This is more than likely the first negative brought up when discussing Allen, and rightfully so. Many will point to his surrounding cast as the main reason for his 2017 completion percentage. This argument is doesn't hold much water based on the fact that Allen actually had a better year in 2017 in terms of completions percentage (56.3) than he did in 2016 (56%). Allen's accuracy issues are based on a combination of things in my opinion. Inconsistent footwork, decision making, and relying on his arm strength too often.

Footwork - I do not see any majors flaws with Allen's upper body mechanics. It is more about his footwork when pressure presents itself that worries me. Although he showed some improvement at the NFL Combine and at his pro day, it doesn't prove that he won't revert back to his old inconsistent ways as soon as he puts the pads on.

Arm Strength - This falls into the "patient to a fault" category of traits. Possessing an absolute rocket of an arm sometimes clouds Allen's judgement. He reminds me of Jay Cutler in the sense that he believes he can make every throw. Sometimes it will produce highlight throws while other times it will result in a costly turnover or misses opportunity.

Inconsistent -  The picture below speaks to the inconsistency Allen dealt with last season. He logged four games with a completion percentage of 50% or lower which resulted in 425 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Mixed in that were three games in which he posted a completion percentage of 68% or better that resulted in 606 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception. You didn't know which Josh Allen was going to show up from game-to-game.

 *Photo via https://www.sports-reference.com/

*Photo via https://www.sports-reference.com/

Summary:

It's easy to see why an NFL team would fall in love with Josh Allen. He has one of the best arms to ever enter the league to go along with his NFL prototypical size. I however am skeptical that Allen will ever be able to fix his accuracy issues. There have been many big arms that didn't translate to a franchise quarterback. Allen has a ceiling as high as any other quarterback in this class, however, he carries with it a ceiling as low as any in this class as well.

Fantasy Impact:

According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Allen is the 5th quarterback coming off the board in rookie drafts around the 2.12 slot in single QB leagues as of 4/3/18. That spot is fair for a player that possesses the very high ceiling and very low floor discussed previously. Allen is all but certainty going to be drafted high and given the opportunity to start sooner or later. I don't mind taking a shot on the potential Allen carries around the 3rd round in dynasty rookie drafts.